Summertime and Showings Are Increasing

On Friday I gave you the new Monday market report early so that you could catch up on your web browsing over the weekend.  At that time our company, RE/MAX Properties, Inc (the company with the greatest market share by far in Colorado Springs) showing activity for active listings was down 48% from the best week of the year so far, April 5-11, 2010.  The number of listings was up 7% between April and the week of May 31-June 6, 2010.  The good news is now that graduations, early summer weddings, and the hub-bub that surrounds kids getting out of school here in the West has passed, people are interested in looking at houses once again.  Listings are still increasing (10% increase from the first full week of April), but showing activity has increased 41% in the past week from the week before.  Our company showing activity is down 26% from early April, but we are still hoping for steady sales through the next few months before the high real estate season in Colorado Springs winds down.

Bill to Extend Closing Schedule for Tax Credit Qualifiers

One bright spot is that a bipartisan bill is in Congress to extend the closing deadline for home buyers who have been under contract as of April 30, 2010 to September 30, 2010 rather than June 30, 2010.  This bill is intended to keep the tens of thousands of short sale purchases that were contracted for in play as banks attempt to approve short sales and give buyers enough time to close on those homes.  Without the extension many of the purchasers of these homes could change their minds without the benefit of one of the two tax credits offered this year.  Getting these homes closed could make the difference in how many more homes go into foreclosure between now and the end of the year.  It’s better for those homes to sell at a short sale price rather than an almost assuredly lower price if they go on the market as a bank foreclosure at a later date.

More next Monday!  Get the latest real estate market news here each week.

Recent Statistics of Interest in Foreclosed Properties

According to a recent Harris poll, less buyers are interested in purchasing foreclosure or short sale properties.  And when they are interested, a whopping 36% have unrealistic expectations that bank owned properties will sell for a discount of 50% or more off the price of a non-foreclosure property.  For more details, here is the link to the article.

Walking Away

In the article, new statistics are also provided concerning what percent of the population would consider walking away from an underwater mortgage.  This topic seems to keep showing up in the press.  The good news is 59% of respondents would not walk away from their homes.  One percent would make walking away their first option.  In other posts on this blog, we’ve learned that those whose loan to value ratio exceeds 125% are the most likely to walk away.  This one percent may already be there and see no other option out of their situation.

Freddie Mac and Short Sales

If you have a VA loan, you have a relationship with Freddie Mac.  As one of the former quasi-government agencies and now owned by the federal government after the mortgage industry blew up in 2008, Freddie Mac is the go-to insurer of VA loans.  Consequently, they are very concerned about fraud when lenders who are originating VA loans approve short sales for borrowers.  The attached link is directed towards these lenders, but consumers can learn from this post.  Note the Fraud Prevention Red Flags.  Remember my earlier post about borrowers paying off their credit cards and letting their mortgage go?  This idea belongs in the Land of Unintended Consequences.  If you need the advice of someone who has experience with and ongoing education about short sales, please contact me.  My team of CDPE trained Realtors® stay on top of what is going on with this segment of the market.  We are here to help!

Distressed Property Sales Statistics

Depending on the season, anywhere from 15-35% of residential real estate sales in the Pikes Peak Region are distressed properties (short sales and foreclosures) in the past few years.  We have a relatively stable market compared to Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and California.  The number of mortgages that are underwater in California varies with the city, but many California communities are finding they have an unusually high number of homeowners who owe more than they can sell their home for.

The Top Three

The cities and states with extremely high rates of underwater mortgages are also the markets where huge unsustainable appreciation rates were the norm during the height of the market.  These appreciation rates were exceeding 30% a year in many cities.  Three statistics I thought were the scariest for homeowners were Las Vegas (70% underwater), Phoenix (58%), and Florida (48%).  It will take many years for these locations to dig out from under their real estate problems.  As long as rates stay low, buyers will come, but the condo markets will continue to be in distress due to tightening financing requirements for these properties.  Las Vegas and Florida have a lot of condos that were built with speculation in mind.

Strategic Defaults

A consequence of all this misery is that some homeowners are making strategic defaults - a fluff term that means walking away from your home and sending the keys to the bank.  Many homeowners in these greatly distressed markets don’t see any way out.  They would rather trash their credit than pour more money into these properties or wait for the turn around.  Statistics show that homeowners most likely to default on their loan are those that have a loan to value ratio of 125% or greater.  Other sellers with an underwater loan are seeing an opportunity to rent out these properties to people who would rather rent than buy or who aren’t in a position to buy, let them pay the mortgage, and wait for things to improve.  And the third group doesn’t need to move, like their homes, and are content to just wait it out and live their lives.

Just food for thought.  What do you think will happen in the next 5 years in your community?

Active, Pending, and Sold Since January 1, 2010

Since the $8000 first time homebuyer and $6500 move up buyer tax credits expire after 04/30/10, I thought it would be interesting to see what the effect of the home buyer credits have been on our local market this year.  By analyzing the numbers now, I can do another analysis at the end of summer and see what the real impact has been.  Many of the residential properties closing between now and the end of June undoubtedly are affected by the tax credits.

Since January 1, 2010

There are currently 6027 residential properties for sale in the Pikes Peak MLS.  Since January 1, 2010 2682 have sold and 2174 are pending.  Of the properties pending 328 or 15% are tagged as short sales.  What is more interesting is the distribution of activity in different price ranges in 2010.

Sales and Pending Sales in 2010

The statistics related to different price ranges is very interesting.  Of the 6027 active properties today, 19% are priced $400,000 or higher.  That equals 1165 homes.  Of those, 159 are priced at $1Million or more.  Between $300-400K, there are 883 homes or 15%, between $200-300K, there are 1672 homes or 28%, and below $200,000 there are 2307 homes or 38% of the homes available for sale.

Pending sales with a $300,000 or higher list price are 18% of the pending sales or 389 homes.  Between $200-300K are 23% or 507 pending sales, and the remaining 59% of pending sales are priced below $200,000.  I would say from this that the first time homebuyer credit is definitely having an effect on which homes are selling.  This affects the median sales price as well since a much greater volume of lower priced homes are selling.  It will be interesting to see if the median price increases as the tax credits go away.  Right now demand is high below $200,000 and it is helping to stabilize prices at this level.  As the tax credits go away we will see if that demand continues to keep prices stabilized.

The High End of the Market

So higher priced homes ($300K and above) account for 34% of the market but only 18% of pendings and 16% of sales so far in 2010.  The mid-range of $200-300K accounts for 28% of the available homes, 23% of pending sales, and 24% of sold properties in 2010.  The curve is very much skewed to the lower end of the spectrum as 59% of available homes are priced below $200,000 as are 38% of pending sales and 60% of sales so far in 2010.  The properties included are single family homes, patio homes, townhomes, and condos.

For homes priced at $1Million or more, 7 have sold in 2010; 9 are pending, and 159 are available.  It will take a long time for that part of the market to recover.  With 34% of the market but a much lower percentage of sold properties, sellers in the $300,000 price range and above are going to have to have their homes be very competitively priced and in excellent condition to acquire a sale in their peer group.  For buyers with extra cash, wonderful homes can be purchased at prices that wouldn’t have even been dreamed about 3 years ago.  Stay tuned for our follow-up report in August as the high selling season winds to a close for 2010 and we prepare for the more sluggish autumn sales months.

Why am I posting so many times on the same issue - financially distressed homeowners?  Unfortunately, that’s where the market still is and will be for some time to come.  The number of contacts I have had recently pertaining to this issue has put this topic at the top of my mind.  It is important for people who are in fear of losing their homes to know that there are people in the real estate industry they can trust to discuss their situation.

I’ve mentioned in a previous post that many homeowners who are behind in their payments do not talk to anyone before being foreclosed on.  It is embarassing.  They didn’t expect to be in this situation.  They don’t know where to turn.  They don’t want their friends and family to know they are in trouble.  They think they can find a way out on their own.  But homes are being foreclosed on without any attempt to stop the process.  What they need to know is that there are options available.  If they wait until the last minute, it’s almost impossible to save their home from the public trustee’s sale.  One place to start is CDPE.com to find trained Realtors in the homeowner’s city.  Other training is becoming available to Realtors.  NAR now has the SFR (Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification).  If you don’t find a CDPE trained Realtor in your city, look for a Realtor with the SFR certification.  These Realtors have taken the time to educate themselves on the short sale process.

But the real reason for my post today is to warn you about scammers that take advantage of homeowners who are in default and who also take advantage of Realtors who don’t know what they are doing when it comes to short sales.  Everytime there is a crisis, creative criminals find ways to take money from well-intended individuals.  In this economy there are short sale scams, loan negotiation scams, you name it.  Here are some questions to ask before starting to work with any self-described short sale company.  I want to thank Brandon Brittingham of Maryland for his post of these tips on BrokerAgentSocial.

1.  Ask if the type of short sale practice they use is legal in your state.  Different states have different requirements.  Check your state laws and local laws or common practices and thoroughly research any company you are considering.  If they say they are short sale experts, what experience do they have to support that?  How many short sales have they closed?  Are they willing to give you legitimate references?  Do they work with reputable real estate brokers, lenders, and title companies who can provide those references?

2.  Are they asking for money upfront?  Some legitimate companies do charge upfront, but it isn’t the norm.  Realtors who are short sale specialists only get paid at closing and their payment is outlined on the HUD1 Settlement Statement.  How is the short sale company you are considering getting paid?  Are they accountable to the seller’s bank, who will be approving a short sale, or to anyone else?  What recourse do you have for getting your money back if they don’t do what they say they will?

3.  Be wary of companies that have no affiliation with a real estate company.  Companies Brandon says he has run across that are running scams or offer no real service are not affiliated with a real estate broker for a reason.  Real estate brokers and agents that are members of NAR are required to abide by the Code of Ethics of the National Association of Realtors.  Any licensed Realtor is required to abide by the laws of the state in which they are licensed.  If you aren’t a licensed real estate broker or agent you don’t have to follow these laws or codes.  So be cautious of companies who are not affiliated with legitimate brokers.  Do your homework to see if they are legitimate companies and provide the services they claim to offer.

Let me add one last caution.  In a short sale, the seller’s bank is agreeing to take less than is owed to allow the homeowner to sell their home.  Therefore, they have to approve the sale.  Some short sale or real estate investment companies do what is referred to as a double close.  An investor buys the property at the first closing and then shortly after (the same day) the investor sells the house to another buyer the seller has never met at a second closing and takes a profit from the transaction.  Do you think there is room for fraud in this type of activity?  Very much so.  If the seller could have gotten a higher price to begin with, don’t you think their bank would like to know that? 

There are people in the marketplace who want to take money out of the deal without putting down any money of their own or getting their own loan for the first closing.  Oftentimes the company you are talking to is the investor.  Please know there are legitimate investors who close and then sell to someone else.  And legitimate real estate investors are a group that will help get us out of the real estate mire we are currently in, but they do things according to the rules.  If the buyer won’t have their own hard money on the table at the first closing, be suspicious and cautious.  This same caution goes to buyers who know there is an intermediary between them and the seller.  Work with a reputable Realtor who can spot suspicious activity and help you avoid it.

As always, if we can help, we are here to do that.

Remember my post on March 16th that discussed people in distress paying off their credit cards and letting their mortgage payment go.  Well, that strategy may come back to bite them if they try to sell their home as a short sale later on.  Lenders are now checking to see if sellers requesting short sales are also delinquent on their other bills.  If not, they might not be as anxious to approve the short sale.  Another example of unintended consequences.  Beware.

There is a new trend in some areas that have been especially hard hit during the past 4 years - people who are current on their mortgages walking away and letting the bank take back their house.  In the early 1980s this phenomenon was happening in Houston, TX, where we lived at the time, because home prices dropped all over the city and surrounding communities and people who were unable to sell their homes for what they owed simply walked away.  Some neighborhoods looked like Phoenix and Florida do today with foreclosure after foreclosure lining the streets.  Here is a link to a recent article from Realtor.com about the risks in doing this.

I was looking at information for a client on a home listed in our MLS and realized this home and seller were representational of the worst case situations that have been happening in the past few years.

They bought their home in 1998 for a great price, enjoyed having it appreciate to a current tax valuation $116,000 more than they paid in 1998, and then drained it of equity in 2002 and then again in 2006 by taking out large 1st and 2nd loans.  I don’t know the reason they did this, but it is very sad.  Sometimes people lose their job.  Sometimes they have huge medical bills to pay off.  Sometimes they use the money for other investments.  And sometimes they just treat their home as an ATM and the money ends up wasted on depreciating cars, boats, furniture, and just stuff.  And when the market changes, they are stuck and end up in foreclosure because they can no longer afford their payment.

In this case, the owner borrowed what the house was worth and did it not once, but twice.  And they didn’t use just a single mortgage, they used both a 1st and 2nd loan each time.  Remember my last post about easy money?  They were put at risk by risky loans.  I wish I knew what their story is.  Why would they do this to themselves?  The refinance in 2006 was at a variable rate over 1.5% higher than their 1998 rate.  And what was wrong with their 2002 loans that they would refinance and accept such a high rate in 2006?  Was their 2002 rate even higher?  Were their 2002 loans even riskier types of loans they were trying to get out from under?  Did they just want another $28,000 out of the house that they got by refinancing in 2006?  Why did they trust the lender who put them into these loans?  Did they realize they were putting themselves at risk?  Did they care?  Was it out of desperation?

Their 1998 rate was  fixed and they put 5% down.  They did everything right when they bought the house, but then 4 years later, everything seemed to start going wrong.  They ended up filing for foreclosure in 2008, actually managed to get a loan modification, and then went back into foreclosure in 2009.  Which, by the way, is not an uncommon occurrence.

The sad thing is that if they had stuck with their original loan, by fall of 2008 they would have paid it down by over $23,000 and with over $100,000 in appreciation, they could have sold in 2008 and walked away with cash in their pockets.  Their loan to value ratio would have been only 54%.  They would have owned 46% of their home 10 years after buying it!  Even if they had taken equity out to update the home, they still should have had plenty of cash when they sold.  A very sad case indeed.  And now an opportunity for someone else who buys their foreclosure.  Watch for posts in February about my free consumer seminars to help you avoid being one of these sad cases and instead be a story of real estate success.

First, let me share a little history lesson.  The change in the markets the past few years is now affecting what people are buying when they do buy a home.  During the roaring 90s when the dot com industry rose, people had a lot of extra cash in their pockets and built homes to reflect their desires.  Showy, big, extravagant homes dotted (that is a pun ) the landscape, especially in California.  Then the dot com bubble burst starting in 2000 and the market changed.  Investments in the stock market tied to technology went poof and bank accounts dwindled.  Real estate then became the go-to investment arena and we all know what happened.  Real estate prices escalated until 2006.  In markets like CA, FL, AZ, and Las Vegas, prices were surging 30-40% per year and those who were actually awake during that time realized what goes up must come down.  I personally could not believe that interest only loans were being used by consumers to purchase the home they would be living in.  Interest only loans are a strategic product used by real estate investors to manage cash flow.  I don’t think that description applies to most of our neighbors.  So what does all this have to do with smaller homes?

Just think how different the real estate market and our economy would be today if we had foregone the speculation of the past decade.  Did you know 1 in 4 homes was sold as an investment during the go-go years?  That’s 25%.  Do you think that had an impact on pricing?  Absolutely.  Just like tulip bulbs in Holland centuries ago.  We Americans went around with blinders on because getting money was so easy and we didn’t want to believe it could end.  But just like the dot com bubble, it was an upside down pyramid and collapsed under it’s own weight.  We ran out of buyers who could buy at such frothy prices.  Fortunately, in some markets such as Colorado Springs, we had more steady increases in prices and never saw huge increases, so most homeowners can weather the current market.  But even here prices have dropped about 20% on average over the past 3 years and people who bought at the height of the market are underwater unless they had a large down payment or have been making extra principal payments since they bought their home.  If they can stay put, they’ll be okay.  If they have to sell, they have a problem unless they can bring cash to closing.  For some, hardship will allow them to qualify for a short sale to avoid foreclosure.  Sadly, others will lose their homes.

So back to my question.  What would the market be like if the housing market had been steady instead of the scenario we did have?  First off, not as many people would own homes or if they did, they would own smaller homes than they purchased because they wouldn’t have based their decision on an expectation that their home was going to appreciate in the double digits every year and make them rich.  Home ownership DOES make people rich, but it is a slow steady process that lasts a lifetime.  The other thing we would have seen is smaller homes because they would be more affordable.  In some places, like California and Hawaii, they’ve had to keep home sizes smaller in general because land is so expensive.  If speculators hadn’t driven up prices buying properties with loans that required no verification of income or assets, more people would still be in their homes because they would have been given those loans based on more realistic requirements.  Hind sight is always 20-20, and looking into the past shows us a process that was totally out of control.

Fortunately, our economy provides the answers and we will dig ourselves out of this mess.  Without buyers who can or will pay inflated prices, home sellers have had to reduce prices in order to sell.  Many people who would like to sell have kept their homes off the market for now, reducing inventory, which will help with recovery.  The market is winding down, although in some places, it definitely crashed.  At some point we will reach equilibrium.  We are getting closer, although there are still more foreclosed homes coming to the market that will keep prices down for the next few years.  As prices have come down, people who didn’t want to or couldn’t buy when prices were high, are now finding that homes are affordable.  The rate of affordability has increased.  Builders will build smaller homes to entice first time buyers and seniors who are downsizing.  The other good thing that has happened is that people have started saving again and are being more cautious about buying.  Loans aren’t as easy to get and people have to jump through hoops to prove they can pay their mortgage in order to get a loan.  Many people will wait until they feel more secure in their work or feel they will be in the house long enough for buying to make sense.  But more people who didn’t think they could ever afford to buy, can now find homes within their means.  And ultimately we will help the environment as green technologies become more prevalent in building and remodeling and energy efficiency becomes more important.

If we keep the recent market lesson fresh in our minds, what has happened can prove to be a good thing because it is changing how people view money.  Perhaps individually people will remember and not allow themselves to be drawn into craziness in the future.  New homes built will be smaller so that builders can keep prices where buyers can afford to buy.  Condo owners will ultimately be helped as people discover that is an affordable option in not so affordable markets.  As baby boomers retire they will still want 2nd homes and that will once again help the Florida, Arizona, and condo markets recover.  Some baby boomers will retire to smaller, more affordable communities and will help the economies of those areas where their spending will create more jobs.  First time home buyers have a fantastic opportunity right now to get into a home at lower prices and amazingly low interest rates.  Even when the $8000 tax credit ends, homes will still be affordable.  But that still doesn’t mean everyone should buy.  It still needs to be a careful decision.

For those who can’t buy yet, investors are buying foreclosure and short sale homes and renting them out, so renters will find more choices available to them.  Investors will be part of the solution as well.  So there is light at the end of the tunnel.  Now is the perfect time to put money aside and plan to one day be a homeowner or get that 2nd home or move up to a bigger home.  With planning they are all great choices.  If you are in a position to act now, congratulations!  This will prove to be one of the greatest opportunities of the 21st century.