I love it when a plan comes together!  As you may know, I read a lot of articles and listen to a lot of speakers whose content pertains to the real estate and investment markets.  I want to make sure I’m on top of the latest information for the benefit of my clients and readers.  Today I read my new Realtor Magazine Online and half the articles happened to be on subjects I’ve thought about recently.  That’s where my plan comes in - I have a tendency to see trends rather than follow them and want to share those insights with you.

One of the current articles is on a topic critical to any seller in the current market or who is thinking of taking the plunge.  How to price homes in the MLS.  ONLY HIRE A REALTOR WHO KNOWS YOUR MARKET AND WHO WILL BE HONEST WITH YOU!!  Did you know that 90% of pricing is based on location and size of the home?  Did you know buyers want all the great stuff you put in your house, but at a steal of a deal?  Did you know you are competing with foreclosures and short sales and those distressed sales are anywhere from 30-75% of all sales in many communities?  Colorado Springs is currently at about 30% with that number expected to increase to between 40-50% of sales as ARM loan rates reset.

All too often, I see homes listed way above where they are selling in that neighborhood (like one right now in my own neighborhood - $35,000 too high).  Why?  Do the sellers really want to show their home for months on end and then have the listing expire?  It is hard enough to get a sale when the price is in the right range but prices keep dropping because of financially distressed properties nearby.  You can decide for yourself why people would do this to themselves.  Share your thoughts if you’d like to.

My team and I are honest about what sellers can expect to get for their home in this market.  Not only that - we tell you if things are changing so you can change your expectations as well.  This market is not static.  Some day we hope to be able to tell you it is improving month after month, but that’s not now.

Here’s the link to the article from Realtor Magazine that prompted my post today.  Colorado Springs is listed as a market that is on track.  Homes are being priced for the most part to reflect recent sales and the amount of inventory is staying fairly steady.  That’s good for current and future sellers.  If you have questions about your neighborhood, we’re only a phone call or email away.  What are you going to do to sell your home after the home buyer tax credit goes away?  Let us help you come up with your plan.

I like to stay in touch with past clients and one of the most frequently asked questions I get is “How’s the Colorado Springs real estate market doing?”.  In the past week I had the opportunity to hear Alex Charfen, founder of The Distressed Property Institute and the Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) real estate designation, speak to our company and my response to a recent client inquiry reflected what I heard Alex say.  We are not out of the woods yet.

My family built a new home in Colorado in 1988 and it did NOT appreciate for 5 years until MCI opened their headquarters in Colorado Springs in 1993 and did massive hiring.  Many new jobs followed in the technology and service sectors.  Colorado Springs grew.  Our home has appreciated nicely since 1993, even though those first years were not good, but we didn’t build our house intending to rake in appreciation in 12 months, 18 months, or even 3 years.  Many people had that mindset as they bought between 2004 and 2007.  It hasn’t worked out for them as we as a nation have experienced a devastating recession and billions of dollars of wealth has been lost.  What does it take to get positive home appreciation?  Jobs!!!  Until we see the job situation improve, we will not see a robust real estate market.  Does that mean you shouldn’t buy now, or sell and buy a nicer home?  Absolutely not.  Over a lifetime, home ownership has proven to be an amazing vehicle for wealth accumulation compared to renting and paying someone else’s mortgage.  But you do have to pay attention to your personal financial circumstances and lifestyle and decide whether you can afford to not have any appreciation for the next 2-3 years.  That is what we will probably see locally and nationally.  We expect Colorado Springs to improve ahead of many markets, but there is no guarantee when that will happen.

So what did I tell my client?  Here’s my response.  Do you agree with me?  Or do you believe the national press telling you all is good, no worries, things are looking up?  Stayed tuned for more facts in the coming weeks.  Then you decide.

We’re doing better with the number of sales than last year, but last year was the worst year in about 20 years in Colorado Springs.  The $8000 first time homebuyer tax credit is helping increase the number of sales for 2009 and 2010, but prices are not going up.  Rather we expect them to either stay flat or decrease again once the tax credit goes away 4/30/10.  It’s an awesome buyer’s market, but a lousy seller’s market.  My team and I are telling people that if they have to sell or they are looking for a great move-up deal and are willing to take a price hit on their current home to get the $6500 move-up buyer credit and great pricing and low interest rates on a larger or newer home, then go ahead and list their home, but if they just want to “try” to sell, this is not the market for that.  There is another wave of foreclosures coming as ARMs reset in 2011 so we don’t expect prices to improve locally for at least another 2 years.  We’re encouraging people to pay down their mortgages and pay in additional principal to build equity in the coming few years.

Are you considering taking advantage of the $8000 home buyer tax credit or the new $6500 move-up buyer tax credit?  The deadline to do so is April 30, 2010 with a closing by the end of June, 2010.  But what if you want to purchase a brand new home?  That is still possible also.  I have been working with clients who are building new homes in the past 6 months and the builders are eager to get you in a house.  Just recently Hallmark Homes notified me that they will guarantee a closing by the end of June and are offering finished basements in some areas.  I have found Classic Homes in Wolf Ranch to be excellent to work with and my clients feel like VIPs.  Thank you to Tina and Teresa for being exceptionally caring and communicative.  We all appreciate you.

If you want to look into this option yourself, I have a team of experts who can help you come up with a plan so that you can be in your own home in 2010 and hopefully take advantage of the tax credit as well.

During the recent market downturn, many owners of larger, more expensive homes are staying put because they would have to take much less for their homes than they would have received 3 years ago.  Those that do have their homes on the market are still having difficulty selling because buyers in the higher price ranges are still scarce.  A recent article I read from the Dallas Morning News states that 60% of Baby Boomers intend to stay in their current home when they retire.  With 40% considering a move, that still leaves a lot of buying power on the table.  For now though, many are waiting for the housing  market recovery before making the decision to downsize or change location.

Below is an excerpt from the Dallas Morning News article.  Many of the WWII Generation own their homes outright.  The percent of Baby Boomers who own their homes outright is less.  This generation has moved around more and bought increasingly larger homes as their incomes increased.  Builders will have to adjust to a new cost conscious perspective of Baby Boomer retirees.  Social Security is in trouble and many retirees will still work parttime in retirement and will be watching spending.  Many will be retiring later than they planned and their 401K and other investments aren’t as robust as they were 2 years ago.  The housing market isn’t the only part of the economy that is recovering.  A new more frugal outlook will drive a desire for smaller, more energy efficient, more affordable homes for retirees.  I personally believe this could mean a shift to smaller more affordable communities that have nice amenities and are close to good health care.

More than 75% of 55-plus buyers say they want a home in the suburbs. But that doesn’t mean they want a big house. Surveys show older buyers are more frugal about housing needs. “The 55-plus buyers are not interested in growing their house size,” Crowe said. “They are asking for about a 1,900-square-foot home” on average. “They’re worried about energy costs.” Most older homebuyers surveyed are holding down their cost expectations, industry research shows. “When we asked the consumer, ‘What are you willing to pay?’ they said $190,000,” Crowe said. “And when we asked the builders, ‘What are you building for this market?’ they said $287,000. “Obviously, there’s a real big problem there.”

Indeed, builders say they are in a quandary over what kind of housing to produce for 55-plus buyers. “The baby boomers are absolutely unpredictable,” said Andy White, a South Carolina developer. “There is no model to say what we ought to build.”

For the full Dallas Morning News article, click here.

Realtor.org posted this article and I thought it was interesting to see which communities seem to be the most attractive to today’s retirees.  Top of the list is Ft.Collins/Loveland, Colorado.  Both great smaller affordable communities with Colorado’s temperate climate - milder, sunny winters, and pleasant summers.  We do get a lot of retirees in Colorado Springs too.  I love Honolulu (tropical weather and island beauty), Tucson (great winters, lovely desert terrain, but hot summers), Santa Fe (great SW food and shopping, mild summers, but cold winters), and San Diego (gorgeous ocean vistas, great climate, but expensive).  I would consider some of the other cities  but…Michigan??  Those retireees must like cold and snow, but… property is probably very affordable there now.  Here’s the list of the top 15 cities provided by AARP and CNBC.  Looks like you can still catch the Tom Brokaw story on March 4th on CNBC to hear all the details.

15 Top Retirement Cities - Boomers are willing to move farther than previous generations when they retire, and they are choosing places unlike stereotypical retirement hotspots, says Tom Brokaw in his report on Boomer retirement, airing on CNBC, Thursday, March 4 at 9 p.m. ET.The top places listed by AARP and explored on the show are:

1. Loveland/Fort Collins, Colo.
2. Las Cruces, N.M
3. Rehoboth Beach, Del.
4. Portland, Ore.
5. Greenville, S.C.
6. Sarasota, Fla.
7. Ann Arbor, Mich.
8. Tucson, Ariz.
9. Montpelier, Vt.
10. Honolulu
11. Santa Fe, N.M
12. Atlanta
13. Charleston, S.C
14. Northampton, Mass.
15. San Diego, Calif.

Source: CNBC, Paul Toscano (02/05/2010)

There is a new trend in some areas that have been especially hard hit during the past 4 years - people who are current on their mortgages walking away and letting the bank take back their house.  In the early 1980s this phenomenon was happening in Houston, TX, where we lived at the time, because home prices dropped all over the city and surrounding communities and people who were unable to sell their homes for what they owed simply walked away.  Some neighborhoods looked like Phoenix and Florida do today with foreclosure after foreclosure lining the streets.  Here is a link to a recent article from Realtor.com about the risks in doing this.

I was looking at information for a client on a home listed in our MLS and realized this home and seller were representational of the worst case situations that have been happening in the past few years.

They bought their home in 1998 for a great price, enjoyed having it appreciate to a current tax valuation $116,000 more than they paid in 1998, and then drained it of equity in 2002 and then again in 2006 by taking out large 1st and 2nd loans.  I don’t know the reason they did this, but it is very sad.  Sometimes people lose their job.  Sometimes they have huge medical bills to pay off.  Sometimes they use the money for other investments.  And sometimes they just treat their home as an ATM and the money ends up wasted on depreciating cars, boats, furniture, and just stuff.  And when the market changes, they are stuck and end up in foreclosure because they can no longer afford their payment.

In this case, the owner borrowed what the house was worth and did it not once, but twice.  And they didn’t use just a single mortgage, they used both a 1st and 2nd loan each time.  Remember my last post about easy money?  They were put at risk by risky loans.  I wish I knew what their story is.  Why would they do this to themselves?  The refinance in 2006 was at a variable rate over 1.5% higher than their 1998 rate.  And what was wrong with their 2002 loans that they would refinance and accept such a high rate in 2006?  Was their 2002 rate even higher?  Were their 2002 loans even riskier types of loans they were trying to get out from under?  Did they just want another $28,000 out of the house that they got by refinancing in 2006?  Why did they trust the lender who put them into these loans?  Did they realize they were putting themselves at risk?  Did they care?  Was it out of desperation?

Their 1998 rate was  fixed and they put 5% down.  They did everything right when they bought the house, but then 4 years later, everything seemed to start going wrong.  They ended up filing for foreclosure in 2008, actually managed to get a loan modification, and then went back into foreclosure in 2009.  Which, by the way, is not an uncommon occurrence.

The sad thing is that if they had stuck with their original loan, by fall of 2008 they would have paid it down by over $23,000 and with over $100,000 in appreciation, they could have sold in 2008 and walked away with cash in their pockets.  Their loan to value ratio would have been only 54%.  They would have owned 46% of their home 10 years after buying it!  Even if they had taken equity out to update the home, they still should have had plenty of cash when they sold.  A very sad case indeed.  And now an opportunity for someone else who buys their foreclosure.  Watch for posts in February about my free consumer seminars to help you avoid being one of these sad cases and instead be a story of real estate success.

First, let me share a little history lesson.  The change in the markets the past few years is now affecting what people are buying when they do buy a home.  During the roaring 90s when the dot com industry rose, people had a lot of extra cash in their pockets and built homes to reflect their desires.  Showy, big, extravagant homes dotted (that is a pun ) the landscape, especially in California.  Then the dot com bubble burst starting in 2000 and the market changed.  Investments in the stock market tied to technology went poof and bank accounts dwindled.  Real estate then became the go-to investment arena and we all know what happened.  Real estate prices escalated until 2006.  In markets like CA, FL, AZ, and Las Vegas, prices were surging 30-40% per year and those who were actually awake during that time realized what goes up must come down.  I personally could not believe that interest only loans were being used by consumers to purchase the home they would be living in.  Interest only loans are a strategic product used by real estate investors to manage cash flow.  I don’t think that description applies to most of our neighbors.  So what does all this have to do with smaller homes?

Just think how different the real estate market and our economy would be today if we had foregone the speculation of the past decade.  Did you know 1 in 4 homes was sold as an investment during the go-go years?  That’s 25%.  Do you think that had an impact on pricing?  Absolutely.  Just like tulip bulbs in Holland centuries ago.  We Americans went around with blinders on because getting money was so easy and we didn’t want to believe it could end.  But just like the dot com bubble, it was an upside down pyramid and collapsed under it’s own weight.  We ran out of buyers who could buy at such frothy prices.  Fortunately, in some markets such as Colorado Springs, we had more steady increases in prices and never saw huge increases, so most homeowners can weather the current market.  But even here prices have dropped about 20% on average over the past 3 years and people who bought at the height of the market are underwater unless they had a large down payment or have been making extra principal payments since they bought their home.  If they can stay put, they’ll be okay.  If they have to sell, they have a problem unless they can bring cash to closing.  For some, hardship will allow them to qualify for a short sale to avoid foreclosure.  Sadly, others will lose their homes.

So back to my question.  What would the market be like if the housing market had been steady instead of the scenario we did have?  First off, not as many people would own homes or if they did, they would own smaller homes than they purchased because they wouldn’t have based their decision on an expectation that their home was going to appreciate in the double digits every year and make them rich.  Home ownership DOES make people rich, but it is a slow steady process that lasts a lifetime.  The other thing we would have seen is smaller homes because they would be more affordable.  In some places, like California and Hawaii, they’ve had to keep home sizes smaller in general because land is so expensive.  If speculators hadn’t driven up prices buying properties with loans that required no verification of income or assets, more people would still be in their homes because they would have been given those loans based on more realistic requirements.  Hind sight is always 20-20, and looking into the past shows us a process that was totally out of control.

Fortunately, our economy provides the answers and we will dig ourselves out of this mess.  Without buyers who can or will pay inflated prices, home sellers have had to reduce prices in order to sell.  Many people who would like to sell have kept their homes off the market for now, reducing inventory, which will help with recovery.  The market is winding down, although in some places, it definitely crashed.  At some point we will reach equilibrium.  We are getting closer, although there are still more foreclosed homes coming to the market that will keep prices down for the next few years.  As prices have come down, people who didn’t want to or couldn’t buy when prices were high, are now finding that homes are affordable.  The rate of affordability has increased.  Builders will build smaller homes to entice first time buyers and seniors who are downsizing.  The other good thing that has happened is that people have started saving again and are being more cautious about buying.  Loans aren’t as easy to get and people have to jump through hoops to prove they can pay their mortgage in order to get a loan.  Many people will wait until they feel more secure in their work or feel they will be in the house long enough for buying to make sense.  But more people who didn’t think they could ever afford to buy, can now find homes within their means.  And ultimately we will help the environment as green technologies become more prevalent in building and remodeling and energy efficiency becomes more important.

If we keep the recent market lesson fresh in our minds, what has happened can prove to be a good thing because it is changing how people view money.  Perhaps individually people will remember and not allow themselves to be drawn into craziness in the future.  New homes built will be smaller so that builders can keep prices where buyers can afford to buy.  Condo owners will ultimately be helped as people discover that is an affordable option in not so affordable markets.  As baby boomers retire they will still want 2nd homes and that will once again help the Florida, Arizona, and condo markets recover.  Some baby boomers will retire to smaller, more affordable communities and will help the economies of those areas where their spending will create more jobs.  First time home buyers have a fantastic opportunity right now to get into a home at lower prices and amazingly low interest rates.  Even when the $8000 tax credit ends, homes will still be affordable.  But that still doesn’t mean everyone should buy.  It still needs to be a careful decision.

For those who can’t buy yet, investors are buying foreclosure and short sale homes and renting them out, so renters will find more choices available to them.  Investors will be part of the solution as well.  So there is light at the end of the tunnel.  Now is the perfect time to put money aside and plan to one day be a homeowner or get that 2nd home or move up to a bigger home.  With planning they are all great choices.  If you are in a position to act now, congratulations!  This will prove to be one of the greatest opportunities of the 21st century.

I read articles on several real estate websites weekly and found an article I read today a great synopsis of what has happened over the past few years.  We started noticing the impact of the real estate meltdown in Colorado Springs the beginning of 2007.  There were hints things were changing in 2006, but prices didn’t start really changing until the foreclosure activity started increasing in 2007.  Here’s the article from Broker Agent Social if you’d like to learn more.

Every week I provide sellers whose homes I have listed with information about trends in our local market so they can be up to speed on what’s going on.  The good news during March was that the number of listings flattened and the number of showings for our company is staying steady.  Sellers have to know this market is not easy and must have a hardy constitution to weather all the uncertainties if they really want to sell their home.  This is not a market to “try” to sell.  That commitment has to be made upfront.  But, with a leveling of listing activity and a 22% increase in sales in El Paso County for March 2009, there is a glimmer of a silver lining on all those clouds.

There are still a lot of foreclosures and short sales to wade through and many more coming, so any upward trend won’t happen quickly, but when it does come, it will be steady because that’s what our local market usually is - steady.  No flash and dash like 40% gains per year seen in Florida, just steady upticks in prices.  Distressed property sales are still more than 30% of the monthly sales for March and 94% of homes that sold were priced below $400,000, so El Paso County is becoming more affordable to more people.  With the $8000 tax credit for first time buyers (remember that also means people who haven’t owned a home in 3 years) and low interest rates, we are in the midst of a perfect storm.  What an opportunity!!!  There is increased activity in some areas of California and in Las Vegas, so we’ll just keep watching the trends and keep you informed.